Finance & economics | Europe’s economy

Europe is heading for recession. How bad will it be?

Its inflation shock is coinciding with an economic downturn

TORRELAGUNA MADRID, SPAIN - JULY 13: An elderly couple walks through the Madrid municipality of Torrelaguna, on 13 July, 2022 in Torrelaguna, Madrid, Spain. It is a village in the Community of Madrid located in the Valle Medio del Jarama, bordering the province of Guadalajara. With a rich and ancient history, linked to the Visigoth and Muslim Roman era, it was in 1390 with the granting of the title of Villa and Mercado franco when the population began to prosper. In the 60's and 70's, the population dropped due to emigration to the capital, but from that time until today began a recovery and growth. Torrelaguna was declared a Historic-Artistic Site in 1974. (Photo By Rafael Bastante/Europa Press via Getty Images)

Editor’s note (September 2nd 2022): On September 2nd Gazprom said that its Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not resume supplies of gas to Europe on September 3rd as originally planned.

Every single warning light is flashing red. Russia’s war on Ukraine, an uneven recovery from the covid-19 pandemic and a drought across much of the continent have conspired to create a severe energy crunch, high inflation, supply disruptions—and enormous uncertainty about Europe’s economic future. Governments are rushing to try to help the most vulnerable. Amid the nervous confusion, there is broad agreement on one thing: a recession is coming.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline "A narrowing path"

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